2020—Another Turning Point in Chinese History

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The situation in Ukraine has finally come to a close, with the US-Russia rivalry ending in a Russian victory. Putin, a seasoned politician, proved himself adept, while Obama appeared somewhat inexperienced. However, regardless of who is the US president, the outcome would likely be the same, as it is determined by national interests, not personal ones. China's performance in this crisis was commendable; President Xi Jinping certainly has a knack for it. With China's national strength growing daily, how should we position our strategy? I offer a brief analysis, and I welcome readers' criticism and corrections.
From the J-20 to the J-31, from the Type 052D destroyer to the launch of the aircraft carrier, and the successful takeoff and landing of the J-15, from anti-satellite weapons to the BeiDou navigation system covering the Asia-Pacific region, from the Dongfeng-21D to the Dongfeng-31A, from the KJ-2000 early warning aircraft to the Y-20 transport aircraft, from the Type 094 to the Type 095, and so on, China's military achievements have brought one surprise after another to the Chinese people. The accumulation of over 30 years of reform and opening up has been released all at once, and the gap between China's military strength and that of the West is narrowing.
Of course, these weapons are still in the experimental stage, and it will take time before they truly achieve combat readiness. The J-20 and J-31 fighter jets have just completed their test flights, and it's estimated that they won't be fully deployed to the armed forces until 2020. Aircraft carriers will take another five years to achieve combat readiness, and by 2020, China is expected to have at least two carrier battle groups. The BeiDou Navigation Satellite System will not achieve full global coverage until 2020. Due to potential problems with the Type 094 destroyer, the Type 096 is currently under development and is also expected to be deployed by 2020. There are many similar weapons. Once these weapons are deployed, the PLA's strength will undoubtedly increase significantly, far surpassing that of certain island nations. More importantly, China's GDP is estimated to be close to the level of the United States by 2020, giving China sufficient capability to compete with the United States in the Asia-Pacific region. China will be able to break through the first island chain and reach the second. Once the United States realizes that China has firmly grasped the initiative in the Asia-Pacific, it may voluntarily abandon its military base on Guam, as it would be easily within its grasp. Although China cannot compete with the United States globally, it is more than capable in the Asia-Pacific.
The root cause of all current problems in the Asia-Pacific region lies with the United States. Let's first look at the Taiwan issue. Undoubtedly, as time goes on, the Taiwan issue is detrimental to the mainland, Taiwan, and the United States. From the mainland's perspective, a growing number of people in Taiwan support independence, and those supporting independence now far outnumber those supporting unification. If public sentiment doesn't turn towards returning to the mainland, things will become increasingly difficult. From Taiwan's perspective, the military balance between the mainland and Taiwan is tilting increasingly towards the mainland, making it less likely that Taiwan will resist unification by force. The best time for Taiwan's independence was between the 1950s and 1970s, which Taiwan unfortunately missed. This was largely thanks to Chiang Kai-shek and Chiang Ching-kuo; Chairman Mao even said that Chiang Kai-shek's rule was better than Chen Cheng's, which was quite accurate. As for the United States, it knows that Taiwan will eventually be unified; it is merely delaying that process. The United States cannot risk everything to confront China on the Taiwan issue, because Taiwan is China's core interest, not the United States'. The Taiwan issue is too important; it has far-reaching consequences. Once the mainland unifies Taiwan, the first island chain will collapse without a fight, allowing for an eastward advance into the second island chain. To the north, it will cut off Japan's supply lines. Utilizing Taiwan's advantageous position, it can launch a pincer attack on the East China Sea and the Diaoyu Islands from the west and south. The Diaoyu Islands and the East China Sea will be easily conquered, and perhaps even the Ryukyu Islands could gain independence. To the south, the smaller Southeast Asian countries are naturally within reach, with Hainan Island and Taiwan serving as springboards, and of course, Taiping Island as well. Retaking the South China Sea would be too easy. Regarding the Taiwan issue, the *Tui Bei Tu* (a Chinese prophetic text) mentions it; the 43rd image says the black rabbit enters the green dragon's lair, which I estimate refers to the next Rabbit or Dragon year, either 2024 or 2036. Based on various analyses, it's foreseeable that the Taiwan issue will be resolved before 2030; it just depends on whether Xi Jinping's successor has the resolve.
As for Japan, currently neither China nor Japan can defeat the other, but I predict a war between them is inevitable, and China can only win, not lose. If war breaks out before the reunification of Taiwan, a defeat would be a complete loss, the Taiwan issue would be in grave danger, and the South China Sea would also face major problems. Of course, the *Tui Bei Tu* also predicts a war between China and Japan, with China winning, which we also hope for.
The Party Central Committee stated that the first two decades of this century represent a period of strategic opportunity for China, and this is absolutely true. China's current approach of restraint on various issues, refusing to resort to force unless absolutely necessary, is correct; a lack of patience can ruin a grand plan. For the future glory of our great Han Dynasty, we must be patient, just like the marriage alliance with the Xiongnu in the early Western Han Dynasty. When the time is ripe, and a General Secretary with the same talent and vision as Emperor Wu of Han emerges, why worry about the world's nations not submitting to our Celestial Empire? Fortunately, we only need to endure for another ten years. To borrow a phrase from Putin, "Give me ten years, and I will give you a glorious and prosperous China."

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2020—Another Turning Point in Chinese History

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